¿Cuánta destrucción se necesita para que tomemos en serio el cambio climático?

Que la civilización humana permanezca intacta en medio de este empeoramiento del clima depende del reconocimiento de nuestra humanidad compartida y del diseño de políticas en consecuencia.

LAS noticias de la primera baja del huracán Dorian llegaron temprano el lunes por la mañana de la prensa de Bahamas. Un niño de siete años llamado Lachino Mcintosh se ahogó cuando su familia intentó encontrar un lugar más seguro que su hogar en las islas Abaco. Según los informes, Dorian es el huracán más fuerte que jamás haya golpeado las Bahamas y la segunda tormenta atlántica más poderosa registrada. Hasta el momento se han reportado cinco muertes, y es probable que haya más. El diputado bahameño y ministro de Asuntos Exteriores, el Honorable Darren Henfield, ofreció una sombría actualización del área que representa a los reporteros: "Tenemos informes de víctimas, tenemos informes de cuerpos vistos".

El aumento de las temperaturas no hace que los huracanes sean más frecuentes, pero ayudan a hacerlos más devastadores. Cada uno de los últimos cinco años ha visto tormentas de categoría 5 pasar por el Atlántico, elaboradas en aguas más calientes de lo habitual. ¿Cuántas personas más tienen que morir antes de que los líderes políticos traten el cambio climático como la catástrofe global que es?

Donald Trump ha sido criticado por jugar al golf cuando Dorian devastó las Bahamas y se dirigió hacia los Estados Unidos. Pero es una metáfora tan buena como cualquiera de la forma en que las élites a través de las líneas políticas han abordado la crisis que han ayudado a crear y continúan alimentando. Una de las realidades más crueles del calentamiento global es que las personas que menos han hecho para contribuir a él tienden a estar entre las primeras y las más afectadas. Naciones como Estados Unidos han acumulado una enorme riqueza tanto quemando combustibles fósiles como explotando la tierra y la mano de obra de los lugares más amenazados por el aumento de las temperaturas a través de la esclavitud, el colonialismo y sus legados vivos. Desigualdades similares se desarrollan dentro de las naciones, incluso en los Estados Unidos,

A nivel internacional, los países vulnerables al clima han defendido durante décadas que se necesita más ambición, centrando las preocupaciones de los responsables políticos en cuestiones de equidad. Las Bahamas es parte de un grupo dentro de la ONU conocido como la Alianza de Pequeños Estados Insulares (Aosis), que comprende países que ya están sufriendo los impactos climáticos y que tienen relativamente pocos recursos financieros para enfrentarlos. El presidente de Aosis y el ministro de energía de Maldivas, Thoriq Ibrahim, sostuvieron en la COP 24 el año pasado que "sería un suicidio no usar todas las palancas de poder que tenemos para exigir lo que es justo y justo: el apoyo que necesitamos para manejar una crisis que tiene nos ha sido impuesta ".

Ese apoyo no ha sido recibido. En su informe especial publicado el año pasado, el Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático descubrió que mantener el calentamiento por debajo de 1.5 grados Celsius, un nivel que ya es peligroso para los estados bajos, requeriría una inversión anual en descarbonización de $ 3 billones hasta 2050. Y eso es solo para mitigar el calentamiento. Se requerirán billones más para adaptarse a los impactos climáticos ya bloqueados, asegurando que cuando huracanes como Dorian golpean causen menos daño. Se espera que la reparación de la pérdida y el daño de las tormentas y otros desastres cueste $ 300 mil millones al año para 2030, saltando a $ 1.2 billones al año para 2060. Como el mayor emisor histórico de gases de efecto invernadero del mundo y su mayor economía, Estados Unidos tiene tanto capacidad y una responsabilidad descomunal descarbonizar rápidamente y hacer posible que los países hagan lo mismo: una deuda climática .

En 2009, las naciones industrializadas se comprometieron para movilizar $ 100 mil millones hacia los esfuerzos de mitigación y adaptación para 2020, una respuesta a las persistentes demandas de los organizadores de justicia climática. Hasta septiembre pasado, solo se habían asignado $ 3.5 mil millones al fondo y solo $ 10.3 mil millones comprometidos con el organismo multilateral que se supone que es el principal vehículo para dispersar ese dinero, el Fondo Verde para el Clima (GCF). Antes de dejar el cargo, Obama prometió $ 3 mil millones para el GCF. Solo $ 1 mil millones de eso se materializaron antes de que Trump retirara ese voto. Eso es una fracción de los $ 15 mil millones estimados al año que el gobierno federal gasta subsidiando el desarrollo de combustibles fósiles. A fines de agosto, el Banco de Importación y Exportación de los Estados Unidos aprobó $ 5 mil millones en financiamiento para un proyecto de gas natural en Mozambique. Tenemos dinero más que suficiente para luchar contra la crisis climática, en casa y en el extranjero. Simplemente va a todos los lugares equivocados.

Los gases de efecto invernadero no encajan perfectamente dentro de las fronteras. Los esfuerzos para frenarlos tampoco pueden. Al igual que otros países ricos, EE. UU. Tiene la responsabilidad de pagar su parte justa por el daño que ha causado al planeta, no a través de préstamos predatorios o de caridad desastrosamente administrada, sino a través de la solidaridad. El plan de Bernie Sanders para un Green New  promete $ 200 mil millones al GCF, hace que el clima sea una pieza central del comercio y la política exterior de los Estados Unidos y pone fin al financiamiento de combustibles fósiles a través de instituciones como el Banco de Importación y Exportación. Un modelo extenso y recientemente publicado de un Green New Deal  para Europa establece una transición rápida y justa lejos de los combustibles fósiles, representando las emisiones que los países ricos exportan al exterior a través del comercio y la necesidad de una respuesta completamente democrática a la crisis climática que no permita que los gobiernos que han diseñado esta crisis tomen todas las decisiones sobre cómo lo maneja el mundo.

A medida que Dorian se dirija hacia Florida, será tentador que los observadores en los EE. UU. Olviden la muerte y la destrucción que ha dejado en otros lugares. Eso sería un error. A pesar de los planes de escape de Jeff Bezos, todos estamos atrapados en este planeta en calentamiento juntos. Que la civilización humana permanezca intacta en medio de todo este empeoramiento del clima depende del reconocimiento de nuestra humanidad compartida y del diseño de políticas en consecuencia. Los lugares comunes para el planeta no lo cortarán.

Dorian

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