Los expertos en seguros clasifican el cambio climático como el principal riesgo para 2019

No es ningún secreto que el cambio climático tiene un costo, tanto que incluso la industria de seguros lo ha marcado como una prioridad. Según una nueva encuesta de la industria, los actuarios (las personas que calculan los riesgos de seguro y las primas según los datos disponibles) clasificaron el cambio climático como el principal riesgo para 2019, superando las preocupaciones por los daños cibernéticos, la inestabilidad financiera y el terrorismo.

Cuando los actuarios miden y gestionan correctamente los riesgos climáticos, pueden ayudar a alejar a las sociedades de la planificación deficiente, como la construcción excesiva en zonas de inundación costera de alto riesgo, y hacia mejores opciones, como construir una infraestructura más resistente diseñada para resistir el aumento anticipado del nivel del mar, de acuerdo con Robert Erhardt, profesor asociado de estadística en la Universidad de Wake Forest.

"La encuesta muestra que los actuarios están comprometidos y que abordan esta frontera de riesgo", dijo a Kolk Steve Kolk, científico actuario y de datos climáticos. "Me emociona ver a los actuarios unirse al esfuerzo y ayudarnos a todos a construir un planeta sostenible más rápidamente".

La encuesta , publicada por la Sección de Gestión de Riesgos Conjuntos y otras dos organizaciones que representan a los actuarios profesionales, encontró que de los 267 actuarios encuestados, el 22 por ciento identificó el cambio climático como su principal riesgo emergente. También fue la opción mejor clasificada para el riesgo combinado y se vinculó con la infraestructura cibernética / interconectada para el riesgo actual más alto. Es un cambio dramático con respecto a los años anteriores, cuando el cambio climático se retrasó con respecto a otros peligros para las personas y las propiedades. En la encuesta del año pasado, solo el 7 por ciento de los encuestados calificaron el cambio climático como el principal riesgo emergente.

Los resultados de la encuesta se alinean con varias proyecciones actuales y futuras del impacto del cambio climático en la economía global. Según una estimación, los desastres naturales causaron alrededor de $ 340 mil millones en daños en todo el mundo en 2017, y las aseguradoras pagaron un récord de $ 138 mil millones. La industria de los seguros desempeña un papel muy importante en la economía de los EE. UU. Con $ 5 billones (el gasto en seguros en 2017 representó alrededor del 11 por ciento del PIB de Estados Unidos ). El cambio climático puede hacer una mella considerable en el crecimiento económico al interrumpir las cadenas de suministro y la demanda de productos, y crear condiciones de trabajo duras, entre otras cuestiones.

"En general, los actuarios reconocen no solo la magnitud de los crecientes riesgos relacionados con el clima, sino que, lo que es más importante, pueden desempeñar un papel positivo para ayudar a la sociedad a gestionar esos riesgos de forma activa", dijo Erhardt.

Si bien el informe podría indicar un cambio potencial en la concientización sobre el riesgo, también puede haberse reducido a los plazos: el informe del Panel Intergubernamental sobre el Cambio Climático se publicó en octubre de 2018, unas semanas antes de la encuesta.

"Los efectos del cambio climático se convirtieron en una historia de portada común en el último año, y los gestores de riesgos están tomando nota", dijo Max Rudolph, miembro de la Sociedad de Actuarios que preparó el informe, a E&E News .

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