Un modelo australiano para la transición a las energías renovables.

Australia está experimentando una notable transición de energía renovable . El gasoducto para los nuevos sistemas de electricidad eólica y solar fotovoltaica (PV) es de 6-7 Gigawatts (GW) por año para el período 2019-21. Esto equivale a 250 vatios por persona por año en comparación con unos 50 vatios por persona por año para la UE, Japón, China y los Estados Unidos.

En 2018, Australia desplegó 5.2 GW de sistemas fotovoltaicos y eólicos (3.5 GW en el suelo, 1.7 GW en el techo). Los datos del Clean Energy Regulator indican que el actual sistema de instalación fotovoltaica y eólica montado en tierra es de aproximadamente 4.3 GW por año. La energía fotovoltaica montada en el techo aumenta aproximadamente un 50% por año y podría superar los 2 GW en 2019, para un despliegue total de energías renovables de aproximadamente 6,3 GW. A este ritmo, Australia está en camino de alcanzar el 50% de electricidad renovable en 2024 y el 100% en 2032.

El sector eléctrico está en camino de cumplir todos los objetivos de reducción de emisiones de París en Australia cinco años antes, en 2025. Esta es una de las tasas de reducción de emisiones sostenibles más rápidas del mundo. Cabe destacar que el costo neto es cero porque los combustibles fósiles costosos están siendo reemplazados por energías renovables más baratas. Australia está en camino de reducir de forma rápida las emisiones de efecto invernadero mediante la electrificación profunda y renovable.

Se puede utilizar un despliegue directo de almacenamiento comercial (centrales hidroeléctricas bombeadas y baterías) y líneas eléctricas de alta tensión interestatales más fuertes para estabilizar una red de energía 100% renovable a un costo moderado . Es fundamental que los gobiernos federales y estatales faciliten la construcción de transmisiones y almacenamiento adicionales para mantener el impulso.

 

Tasa anual de despliegue de energías renovables per cápita para países y regiones

Figura 1: tasa anual de despliegue de energías renovables per cápita para países y regiones. Los datos de Australia para 2016-19 (rojo) provienen del Regulador de Energía Limpia y los datos de 2017 (gris) para otros países / regiones son de IRENA. No se espera que los datos de IRENA para 2018 muestren ningún movimiento grande de los datos en la Figura 1.

El oleoducto de energía renovable de Australia es sostenible a largo plazo. La edad promedio de las centrales eléctricas de carbón de Australia es de 30 años. El costo de la electricidad de energía fotovoltaica y eólica ya es similar al costo de abastecer de combustible y mantener la mayor parte de la flota de carbón negro. El retiro prematuro de muchas de las centrales eléctricas de carbón negro existentes es probable durante la década de 2020, ampliando el mercado de energía fotovoltaica y eólica. La energía fotovoltaica y el viento están listos para competir eficazmente con el gas para calefacción y con el petróleo para el transporte terrestre (a través de vehículos eléctricos). La conversión de electricidad a renovables junto con la electrificación renovable profunda de calefacción y transporte terrestre permite la eliminación de dos tercios de las emisiones de efecto invernadero de Australia en un período de 10 a 20 años (según la configuración de políticas) a un costo neto de aproximadamente cero.

En 2017, las energías renovables representaron dos tercios de las nuevas incorporaciones netas de capacidad global (Figura 2). China, la UE, India, los EE. UU. Y Japón representaron el 83% del nuevo despliegue global de renovables en 2017. Las energías renovables, especialmente la fotovoltaica, representan una parte cada vez mayor de las adiciones de capacidad. El continuo crecimiento exponencial de la energía fotovoltaica (y el viento) y la continua caída de los precios significa que las antiguas certezas en torno a los combustibles fósiles son una mala guía para las perspectivas futuras de las energías renovables. Una transición muy rápida a las energías renovables está en proceso.

Nuevas incorporaciones netas globales anuales para 2015-2017

Figura 2: Nuevas incorporaciones netas globales anuales para 2015-2017 (y datos provisionales para 2018).

Si los países en desarrollo siguen una ruta de uso intensivo de combustibles fósiles, se causarán graves daños al clima terrestre. Por otro lado, seguir una ruta de energías renovables junto con el desmonte final de la tierra desacopla el desarrollo económico del daño climático.

La mayor parte de la población del mundo vive en el cinturón solar (+/- 35 ° de latitud). El cinturón solar también es donde se produce la mayor parte del crecimiento mundial de población y consumo de energía. No hay inviernos fríos y las cargas de calefacción son pequeñas. Esta región tiene mucha luz solar y una baja variación estacional tanto de la demanda como de la radiación solar. La mayoría de los países se encuentran a unos pocos miles de kilómetros de regiones con excelentes recursos eólicos, lo que permite la conexión de la línea eléctrica de CC de alto voltaje y brinda acceso a la frecuente correlación entre la energía solar y la eólica.

También hay un gran número de sitios excelentes para el almacenamiento hidráulico bombeado fuera del río y un bajo requerimiento para el almacenamiento estacional (costoso). Estos países son más como Australia en lugar de Europa o América del Norte o Asia del Norte.

Australia está en camino de reducir de forma profunda y rápida las emisiones de efecto invernadero a través de una electrificación profunda y renovable, a un costo neto de aproximadamente cero. La mayoría de los países pueden seguir el camino australiano y pasar rápidamente a las energías renovables, con la consiguiente gran evitación de futuras emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero.

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