La rápida declinación del mundo natural es una crisis aún mayor que el cambio climático

Un estudio de tres años respaldado por la ONU de la Plataforma Intergubernamental de Ciencia y Política sobre Biodiversidad y Servicios de los Ecosistemas tiene graves consecuencias para el futuro de la humanidad.

La naturaleza está en caída libre y los sistemas de apoyo del planeta están tan extendidos que enfrentamos extinciones de especies generalizadas y la migración humana en masa, a menos que se tomen medidas urgentes. Esa es la advertencia que cientos de científicos se están preparando para dar, y es total.

El año pasado se vieron muchas advertencias brutales y aterradoras sobre la amenaza que el cambio climático representa para la vida. Mucho menos de lo que se habla, pero igual de peligroso, si no más, es el rápido declive del mundo natural. La tala de bosques, la sobreexplotación de los mares y los suelos y la contaminación del aire y el agua están llevando al mundo vivo al borde, de acuerdo con un enorme estudio histórico de tres años respaldado por la ONU. que se publicará en mayo.

El estudio de la Plataforma Intergubernamental de Ciencia y Política sobre Biodiversidad y Servicios de los Ecosistemas (IPBES, por sus siglas en inglés), que se espera que alcance más de 8,000 páginas, está siendo compilado por más de 500 expertos en 50 países. Es el mayor intento hasta ahora para evaluar el estado de vida en la Tierra y mostrará cómo decenas de miles de especies corren un alto riesgo de extinción, cómo los países utilizan la naturaleza a un ritmo muy superior al de su capacidad de renovación y cómo funciona la naturaleza. La capacidad de aportar alimentos y agua dulce a una población humana en crecimiento está siendo comprometida en todas las regiones de la tierra.

Arriba a la izquierda: una plantación de durian en Raub, en las afueras de Kuala Lumpur.  La creciente demanda de durians en ...

Arriba a la izquierda: una plantación de durian en Raub, en las afueras de Kuala Lumpur. Se está culpando a la creciente demanda de durians en China por una nueva ola de deforestación en Malasia. Arriba a la derecha: una plantación de aceite de palma invade una reserva de vida silvestre en Sabah, Malasia. Abajo a la izquierda: el río Kinabatangan fluye a través de una reserva de vida silvestre en Sabah, Malasia. El uso excesivo de pesticidas durante las fuertes lluvias ecuatoriales crea una escorrentía mortal en el frágil río y sus afluentes. Abajo a la derecha: una plantación y fábrica de aceite de palma en Sabah, Malasia.

La naturaleza sustenta todas las economías con los servicios "gratuitos" que proporciona en forma de agua limpia, aire y la polinización de todas las cosechas de alimentos para humanos por abejas e insectos. En las Américas, se dice que esto totaliza más de $ 24 trillones al año.  La polinización de los cultivos a nivel mundial por las abejas y otros animales por sí sola  vale hasta $ 577 mil millones . 

El informe final se entregará a los líderes mundiales no solo para ayudar a los políticos, las empresas y el público a ser más conscientes de las tendencias que configuran la vida en la Tierra, sino también para mostrarles cómo proteger mejor a la naturaleza.

“La atención política de alto nivel en el medio ambiente se ha centrado principalmente en el cambio climático porque la política energética es fundamental para el crecimiento económico. Pero la biodiversidad es tan importante para el futuro de la tierra como el cambio climático ", dijo Sir Robert Watson, presidente general del estudio, en una entrevista telefónica desde Washington, DC

"Nos encontramos en una encrucijada. "La degradación histórica y actual y la destrucción de la naturaleza socavan el bienestar humano para las actuales e innumerables generaciones futuras", agregó el científico atmosférico nacido en el Reino Unido que dirigió programas en la NASA y fue asesor científico en la administración Clinton. "La degradación de la tierra, la pérdida de biodiversidad y el cambio climático son tres caras diferentes del mismo desafío central: el impacto cada vez más peligroso de nuestras elecciones en la salud de nuestro entorno natural".

En todo el mundo, la tierra se está deforestando, limpiando y destruyendo con implicaciones catastróficas para la vida silvestre y las personas. Se están talando bosques en Malasia, Indonesia y África occidental para dar al mundo el aceite de palma que necesitamos para bocadillos y cosméticos . Se están despejando enormes franjas de la selva tropical brasileña para dar paso a las plantaciones de soja y las granjas de ganado, y para alimentar a la industria maderera, una situación que probablemente se acelerará con el nuevo líder Jair Bolsonaro, un populista de derecha. 

La agricultura industrial es la culpable de gran parte de la pérdida de la naturaleza, dijo Mark Rounsevell, profesor de cambio de uso del suelo en el Instituto de Tecnología de Karlsruhe en Alemania, quien copresidió la sección europea del estudio IPBES. “El sistema alimentario es la raíz del problema. El costo de la degradación ecológica no se considera en el precio que pagamos por los alimentos, sin embargo, todavía estamos subsidiando la pesca y la agricultura ".

Esta destrucción causada por la agricultura amenaza los cimientos de nuestro sistema alimentario. Un informe de febrero de la ONU advirtió que la pérdida de tierra, plantas, árboles y polinizadores, como las aves, los murciélagos y las abejas, socava la capacidad del mundo para producir alimentos. 

Una obsesión con el crecimiento económico, así como con la espiral de la población humana, también está impulsando esta destrucción, particularmente en las Américas, donde se espera que el PIB casi se duplique para 2050 y se espera que la población aumente 20 por ciento a 1.200 millones en el mismo período.

Los humanos han tenido un gran impacto en el mundo, pero nosotros formamos una pequeña fracción del mundo viviente.  En el...

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Los humanos han tenido un gran impacto en el mundo, pero nosotros formamos una pequeña fracción del mundo viviente. En el primer cálculo de la biomasa de vida en la Tierra, los científicos descubrieron que los humanos representan solo el 0.01 por ciento de todos los seres vivos. Fuente: Yinon M. Bar-On, Rob Phillips y Ron Milo, PNAS, 2018

Es probable que la naturaleza se vea especialmente afectada en los próximos 30 años, dijo Jake Rice, científico emérito del Departamento de Océanos y Pesca del gobierno canadiense, quien copresidió el estudio sobre las Américas. El alto consumo y la agricultura destructiva degradarán aún más los ecosistemas terrestres y marinos, agregó, aunque el ritmo de la destrucción está disminuyendo porque ya han pasado muchas cosas.

“La gran transformación ya ha tenido lugar en América del Norte, pero las partes remotas de América del Sur y Central siguen bajo amenaza. "Una nueva ola de destrucción está transformando las regiones amazónicas y pampeanas [de América Latina]", dijo Rice.

Todo esto tiene un costo enorme y tiene implicaciones para los sistemas que apuntalan la vida en este planeta, poniendo en duda la capacidad de los humanos para sobrevivir.

"La pérdida de árboles, pastizales y humedales está costando el equivalente a aproximadamente el 10 por ciento del producto bruto anual, impulsando las extinciones de especies, intensificando el cambio climático y empujando al planeta hacia una sexta extinción masiva de especies", dice el informe.

Es probable que las generaciones futuras experimenten mucha menos vida silvestre, dijo Luthando Dziba, jefe de servicios de conservación en los Parques Nacionales de Sudáfrica, quien copresidió la sección del informe de la IPBES que se centra en África.

Los seres humanos han causado la pérdida de alrededor del 80 por ciento de los mamíferos terrestres y marinos silvestres y la mitad de las plantas.  Fuente: Yinon ...

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Los seres humanos han causado la pérdida de alrededor del 80 por ciento de los mamíferos terrestres y marinos silvestres y la mitad de las plantas. Fuente: Yinon M. Bar-On, Rob Phillips y Ron Milo, PNAS, 2018

"África es el último hogar del mundo para una gran variedad de mamíferos grandes, pero el consenso científico es que, según los escenarios actuales, 2100 más de la mitad de las especies de aves y mamíferos africanos podrían perderse", dijo Dziba.

Aproximadamente el 20 por ciento de la superficie terrestre de África ya se ha degradado por la erosión del suelo, la pérdida de vegetación, la contaminación y la salinización, dijo, y agregó que la duplicación esperada de la población del continente a 2.500 millones de personas para el 2050 ejercerá aún más presión sobre su biodiversidad.

Mientras que las personas están familiarizadas con las amenazas a las ballenas, elefantes y otros animales queridos, el problema es mucho más profundo que eso. Las poblaciones de animales han disminuido en un 60 por ciento desde 1970, impulsadas por acciones humanas, según un estudio reciente del World Wildlife Fund.

Y los insectos, vitales para las dietas de otros animales, así como los polinizadores de nuestros alimentos, enfrentan un futuro sombrío ya que las poblaciones parecen estar colapsando . Los cambios en el uso de la tierra y el aumento en el uso de pesticidas están destruyendo hábitats y reduciendo enormemente los números. En Europa, hasta el 37 por ciento de las abejas y el 31 por ciento de las mariposas están en declive , y las mayores pérdidas también se registran en el sur de África, según la sección de polinizadores del informe.

Una evaluación importante de los estudios de insectos realizados en las últimas décadas encontró que el 41 por ciento de los insectos ...

Una evaluación importante de los estudios de insectos realizados en las últimas décadas encontró que el 41 por ciento de los insectos están en declive. Fuente: Sánchez-Bayoa y Wyckhuy, Conservación Biológica, 2019

"Las especies que no son carismáticas han sido pasadas por alto políticamente", dijo Rounsevell. “Más del 70 por ciento de las especies de agua dulce y el 61 por ciento de los anfibios han disminuido [en Europa], junto con el 26 por ciento de las poblaciones de peces marinos y el 42 por ciento de los animales terrestres ... Es un cambio dramático y un resultado directo de la intensificación de la agricultura ", dijo.

Esta destrucción también está impulsando la migración humana en masa y el aumento del conflicto. La disminución de la productividad de la tierra hace que las sociedades sean más vulnerables a la inestabilidad social, dice el informe , que estima que dentro de unos 30 años la degradación de la tierra, junto con los problemas estrechamente relacionados con el cambio climático, habrá obligado a migrar de 50 a 700 millones de personas.

"Simplemente ya no será viable vivir en esas tierras", dijo Watson.

El estudio también reconocerá que gran parte de la riqueza restante de la naturaleza depende de los pueblos indígenas, que en su mayoría viven en las áreas remotas del mundo y están en la primera línea del daño causado por la tala destructiva y la agricultura industrial. Según la IPBES, las comunidades indígenas a menudo saben mejor cómo conservar la naturaleza y están mejor situadas que los científicos para proporcionar información detallada sobre el cambio ambiental.

Brasil, que alberga alrededor de 42,000 especies de plantas, 9,000 especies de vertebrados y casi 130,000 invertebrados, tiene una población indígena de casi 900,000 personas, dice el informe .  

"Lo que más me sorprendió de este estudio fue que quedó claro que las culturas más antiguas, como los pueblos indígenas de las Américas, tienen valores diferentes que protegen mejor a la naturaleza [que las sociedades occidentales]", dijo Watson. "Nadie debe romantizar a los pueblos indígenas, y no podemos retrasar el reloj, pero podemos aprender mucho de ellos sobre cómo proteger el planeta".

Los indígenas, sin embargo, continúan sufriendo discriminación, amenazas y asesinatos . En Brasil, por ejemplo, la elección de Bolsonaro ha consolidado una agenda pro corporativa y anti-indígena que ya ha comenzado a socavar los derechos de las comunidades nativas del país . 

Izquierda: Vista aérea de la deforestación en la región del Amazonas Occidental de Brasil.  Derecha: Miembros de Munduruku ...

Izquierda: Vista aérea de la deforestación en la región del Amazonas Occidental de Brasil. Derecha: miembros de la tribu indígena Munduruku en las orillas del río Tapajos protestan contra los planes para construir una represa hidroeléctrica en el río en la selva amazónica el 26 de noviembre de 2014 cerca de Sao Luiz do Tapajos, Estado de Para, Brasil.

Aunque sus conclusiones son crudas, los autores de la IPBES no son del todo sombríos acerca de las perspectivas de la Tierra. Al ofrecer opciones prácticas para acciones futuras, quieren mostrar que no es demasiado tarde para frenar o incluso revertir la degradación.

Se espera que los autores digan en sus conclusiones que para evitar un desastre, las leyes existentes tendrán que hacerse cumplir, y que se impongan más regulaciones, por ejemplo, sobre la deforestación y la pesca excesiva. Los informes ya publicados también han pedido una mejor protección de los polinizadores, un control más estricto de las especies invasoras y una mayor conciencia pública sobre el deterioro de la naturaleza. 

También reconocerán que las acciones individuales y comunitarias para plantar árboles, regenerar tierras abandonadas y proteger la naturaleza pueden tener un gran impacto positivo. 

Muchas otras soluciones para salvar la naturaleza han sido presentadas por individuos y países.

El biólogo veterano EOWilson propuso que la mitad de la Tierra necesita ser protegida para tener alguna esperanza de evitar el desastre. En otros lugares, los pueblos indígenas de América Latina han abogado por la creación de una de las áreas de tierras protegidas más grandes del mundo. , que se extiende desde el extremo sur de los Andes hasta el Atlántico. 

Varios países están tomando iniciativas audaces para restaurar la tierra, tanto para ayudar a cumplir los objetivos climáticos como para proteger y mejorar la biodiversidad. Pakistán tiene la intención de plantar 10 mil millones de árboles (aunque su campaña de mil millones de árboles anterior no estuvo exenta de controversia ), Etiopía ha movilizado a las comunidades para regenerar 15 millones de hectáreas  de tierras degradadas y el proyecto de la Pared Verde está presionando por un cinturón de vegetación de 4,970 millas en toda África . Mientras tanto, el programa de Medio Ambiente de la ONU ha informado un aumento en el número y tamaño de las áreas marinas protegidas. 

La conciencia pública sobre la crisis también está creciendo, con nuevos movimientos sociales que se crean para presionar a los gobiernos para que actúen con urgencia. El movimiento de Extinción Rebelión , que comenzó en Londres en octubre, sostiene que nos enfrentamos a una emergencia sin precedentes. Respaldado por académicos, científicos, líderes de iglesias y otros, como Naomi Klein, Noam Chomsky y Vandana Shiva, afirma que se ha extendido a 35 países en sus primeros dos meses. Los niños también se unen. El 15 de marzo, miles de  jóvenes en 30 países planean ir a la escuela y protestar contra la inacción sobre el cambio climático.

Pero a pesar de estos movimientos para revertir la destrucción en curso del mundo natural, el panorama general sigue siendo preocupante. Los acuerdos globales ambiciosos, como los objetivos de Aichi establecidos en Japón en 2010 y los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible de las Naciones Unidas en torno a la protección de la naturaleza, pueden no alcanzarse a las tasas actuales de progreso, dicen los autores del informe. 

En última instancia, Watson concluye que salvar la naturaleza requerirá un replanteamiento importante de cómo vivimos y cómo pensamos acerca de la naturaleza, pero es posible cambiar esta grave situación si los gobiernos quieren que suceda.

"No hay balas mágicas o respuestas de talla única". ", Dijo Watson. Las mejores opciones se encuentran en una mejor gobernanza, poniendo las preocupaciones sobre la biodiversidad en el corazón de las políticas agrícolas y energéticas, la aplicación del conocimiento científico y la tecnología, y una mayor conciencia y cambios de comportamiento", dijo Watson. “La evidencia muestra que sí sabemos cómo proteger y al menos restaurar parcialmente nuestros activos naturales vitales. Sabemos lo que tenemos que hacer.

      biodiversidad

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