Fuerte aumento de las temperaturas árticas es inevitable - ONU

Es probable que las temperaturas aumenten en 3 a 5 ° C por encima de los niveles preindustriales, incluso si se cumplen los objetivos de París

Investigaciones han encontrado que los aumentos bruscos y potencialmente devastadores de temperatura de 3C a 5C en el Ártico son inevitables, incluso si el mundo logra reducir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero en línea con el acuerdo de París .

Las temperaturas invernales en el polo norte probablemente aumentarán en al menos 3C por encima de los niveles preindustriales a mediados de siglo, y podrían aumentar aún más entre 5C y 9C por encima del promedio reciente de la región, según la ONU.

Dichos cambios darían como resultado un derretimiento rápido del hielo y el permafrost, lo que provocaría un aumento del nivel del mar y, potencialmente, un calentamiento aún más destructivo. Los científicos temen que el calentamiento del Ártico pueda desencadenar un "punto de inflexión" en el clima, ya que el permafrost en fusión libera el poderoso metano de los gases de efecto invernadero a la atmósfera, lo que a su vez podría crear un efecto de calentamiento incontrolado.

Joyce msuya

 Joyce Msuya es la directora ejecutiva en funciones de UN Environment. Fotografía: Simon Maina / AFP / Getty Images

"Lo que sucede en el Ártico no se queda en el Ártico ", dijo Joyce Msuya, directora interina de Medio Ambiente de la ONU. “Tenemos la ciencia. Ahora se necesita una acción climática más urgente para alejarse de los puntos de inflexión que podrían ser incluso peores para nuestro planeta de lo que pensamos al principio ".

Los hallazgos, presentados el miércoles en la Asamblea de las Naciones Unidas para el Medio Ambiente en Nairobi, dan una idea clara de una de las regiones más sensibles del planeta y que es clave para el destino del clima mundial.

Las severas advertencias del año pasado del Panel Intergubernamental sobre el Cambio Climático, que establecieron los dramáticos impactos de 1.5C del calentamiento global, no incluyeron los impactos de puntos de inflexión potenciales como el derretimiento del permafrost.

Si el permafrost en fusión provoca un punto de inflexión, los resultados probables serían un aumento de la temperatura global por encima del 2C establecido como el límite de seguridad según el acuerdo de París. Según el estudio de la ONU, casi la mitad del permafrost del Ártico podría perderse incluso si las emisiones globales de carbono se mantienen dentro de los límites del acuerdo de París.

Incluso si todas las emisiones de carbono se detuvieran de inmediato, la región ártica seguiría calentándose en más de 5 ° C para finales de siglo, en comparación con el promedio de referencia de 1986 a 2005, según el estudio de Naciones Unidas para el Medio Ambiente .

Esto se debe a que ya se ha vertido mucho carbono en la atmósfera . Los océanos también se han convertido en vastas reservas de calor, cuyo efecto se está revelando gradualmente por los cambios en los polos y en los sistemas climáticos globales, y continuarán haciéndose sentir durante las próximas décadas.

La asamblea escuchó que todavía era necesario cumplir los objetivos del acuerdo de París de 2015 sobre el cambio climático y tomar medidas adicionales que podrían evitar algunos de los peores efectos del calentamiento en el corto plazo. "Necesitamos hacer recortes sustanciales a corto plazo en las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, el carbono negro y otros llamados contaminantes climáticos de corta duración en todo el mundo", dijo Kimmo Tiilikainen, ministro de medioambiente de Finlandia.

Según los estudios anteriores, reducir drásticamente el carbono negro y los contaminantes de corta duración, como el metano, podría reducir el calentamiento en más de 0.5 ° C.

ártico

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