India logrará objetivos climáticos clave en París 10 años antes de la fecha límite

El IEEFA realizó esta estimación antes del informe de actualización de la 2ª Bienal de la India, que será publicado hoy por el gobierno de la India en la COP24 Katowice, Polonia

Nueva Delhi: India es probable que logre sus dos objetivos del Acuerdo de París 10 años antes de la fecha límite de 2030, según el Instituto para la Economía de la Energía y el Análisis Financiero (IEEFA) con sede en EE. UU.

El IEEFA realizó esta estimación antes del informe de actualización de la 2da Bienal de la India, que será publicado hoy por el gobierno de la India en la COP24 Katowice , Polonia.

“Para el primer objetivo, el IEEFA predice que la capacidad instalada de combustibles no fósiles en la India superará el 40% para fines de 2019. Y a la tasa actual de reducción del 2% anual en la intensidad de las emisiones de su producto interno bruto (PIB) "Es probable que India logre el 33-35 por ciento de los objetivos de reducción de la intensidad de las emisiones una década antes que el objetivo", dijo en un informe.

Para marzo de 2019, IEEFA dijo que la capacidad de energía térmica de la India sería de 226 gigavatios (GW) o el 63% del total de 360 ​​GW de la India. Además, dijo que para fines de 2019, la capacidad de combustibles no fósiles de la India superaría el 40% por primera vez.

El informe de Global Coal Plant Tracker había dicho que en los primeros seis meses de 2018, se archivaron o cancelaron 26 GW de las propuestas de centrales eléctricas de carbón de la India. De acuerdo con el IEEFA, esta transformación fue radical cuando se considera que desde 2010, la India ha visto canceladas o archivadas 573 GW de plantas de carbón.

Para promulgar los objetivos, el Plan Nacional de Electricidad (NEP) 2018, estableció un camino claro para que el país supere el primer objetivo.

Según IEEFA, el NEP 2018, en realidad pronostica que la capacidad de combustible fósil disminuirá de 218 GW o 67% de la capacidad instalada de 2017 a 264 GW o solo el 43% de la capacidad instalada total para 2027.

La energía renovable (excluyendo la energía hidroeléctrica a gran escala) está dirigida a 275 GW para 2027, lo que representa una quíntuple expansión en las instalaciones de marzo de 2017 de 57 GW.

El instituto de investigación estima que solo las energías renovables representarían el 44% de la capacidad del sistema instalado para 2027, y las centrales hidroeléctricas y nucleares representan otros 80 GW o el 13% del total de 619 GW.

El IEEFA dijo que la devaluación de la rupia junto con una volatilidad en los precios del petróleo durante 2018 aumentaron las preocupaciones de seguridad energética del país, llamando la atención sobre la excesiva dependencia de la India de los combustibles fósiles importados cada vez más caros.

"Además, los 10 mil millones de dólares en problemas financieros que experimentan las centrales eléctricas de carbón importadas en Mundra en Gujarat están agregando aún más a la importante angustia política y financiera del país en los últimos tiempos", dijo.

Dijo que económicamente, en los últimos dos años, las ofertas de energía renovable se completaron a precios consistentemente muy por debajo de Rs 3 / kWh, haciendo que la energía renovable sea claramente la fuente de bajo costo de la nueva generación de electricidad.
 

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